Posted by
toady on Thursday, May 22, 2008 7:48:20 AM
Cal Thomas recently wrote a column defending big oil. In it he says;
Peter Robertson, vice chairman of Chevron, told me it's a myth that oil companies are not investing in new energy sources... Robertson said there would be plenty of oil available to the United States if the oil companies were allowed to get it: "Eighty-five percent of offshore oil is off-limits."... According to government estimates, there is enough oil in areas accessible to America — 112 billion barrels — to power more than 60 million cars for 60 years. The Outer Continental Shelf alone contains an estimated 86 billion barrels of oil and 420 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Had President Clinton not vetoed exploration in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) in 1995, when oil was $19 a barrel, America would currently be receiving more than 1 million barrels a day domestically, all of it taken by better technology than existed more than 30 years ago.
QUESTIONS: HOW MUCH OIL HAS AMERICA GOT? 21 to 29 billion barrels
HOW MUCH IS IN ANWAR? 6 to 16 billion barrels
IF WE DRILLED IN ANWAR HOW MANY BARRELS PER DAY WOULD WE GET? .6 to 1.6 million barrels
CAN ANWR SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE OUR DEPENDANCE ON FOREIGN OIL? NO
The answer to question 1 above depends on the distinction between proven and unproven reserves:
Proved reserves are claimed with reasonable certainty (80% to 90% confidence) to be recoverable in future years by specified techniques. To meet this definition, the development scenario must have been defined and use known technology, and the scenario must be commercial under current economic conditions
Probable reserves are either unsubstantiated claims or based on median estimates of the accumulation that are more likely to be recovered than not (50% confidence). This can result from either better reservoir behaviour than expected under the proved category or additional investments to be decided over the medium to long term (three to ten years) using conventional techniques.
When Cal says we have 112 billion barrels of oil, he is talking about unproven reserves. The number seems to comes from an EIA report
"In comparison, the estimated volume of technically recoverable, accessible, unproved oil in the rest of the United States is 105 billion barrels, as of January 1, 2002.10 "
The proven oil reserves are far less. The same EIA quotes BP Statistical Review, Oil and Gas Journal and World Oil... The estimates for proven oil reserves in the US are between 21 and 29 billion barrels.
My number for the amount of oil in ANWR also comes from the EIA. They give best and worst case estimates. The estimates are between 6 and 16 billion barrels. From this we could produce between .6 and 1.6 million barrels per day.
the coastal plain of ANWR is projected to reach 0.9 million barrels per day under the USGS mean oil resource case, and 0.6 and 1.6 million barrels per day under the low and high resource cases, respectively. These cases include the impact of production in the Federal 1002 Area plus Native lands and the State offshore area within a 3-mile limit.
For comparison we import about 9 million barrels of oil per day. Oil is fungible, so the total world wide production of oil is relevant. WorldOil.com estimates total world production to be 80 million barrels per day. So the ability to lower oil prices by drilling in ANWR is limited.
CAN WE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE OUR DEPENDANCE ON FOREIGN OIL BY DRILLING IN ANWAR?
NO !
Cal Thomas agrees... he says:
No, we can't "drill our way out" of our addiction to oil, but we can make the transition to other energy sources easier while lessening our dependence on foreign oil and propping up dictators who use our money to subsidize terrorists. A slow transition will also give us time to consider more fuel-efficient cars and greater use of public transportation, even bicycles for short trips. Bikes would help more of us lose weight and get in shape.
The EIA report also agrees:
Opening the coastal plain of ANWR is projected to reduce 2025 oil import dependence from 70 percent in the AEO2004 reference case to 66 percent in the mean resource case.